Remember May? That’s when FIFA handed back 70 to 80 percent of the room blocks it had reserved across host cities — roughly 15,000 nightly bookings in Vancouver alone, and every contracted hotel that had pencilled those nights in as sold-out inventory suddenly had a big hole in its forecast and a scramble on its hands. To their credit, most Vancouver properties backfilled; summer still delivered, and July made a lot of P&Ls look heroic. But that March gut-check taught us the lesson that matters most heading into Fall: never confuse a block with a booking.
Everyone seems to be mostly saying that Summer will be fine. It’s the Fall booking season that is critical for assessing hotel performance, and how they perform then will further reveal the true nature of individual hotels’ capabilities.
The backdrop: BC is winning, but the tape is slowing
BC’s 70% average occupancy for 2026 to date continues to outpace the rest of the country and remains the strongest performing province in terms of hotel performance for the year. While growth in average occupancy continues to slow as we move into the later part of the summer, average daily rate (ADR) and revenue per available room (RevPAR) continue to experience strong increases. For 2027, the national average for Canada is projected to sit at 66% occupancy with 2% to 4% year-over-year increases in RevPAR for most markets. Interestingly, June marked the first decline in occupancy for Canada since December of 2025; however, the decline was down 3.5% to 73%, with all increases in performance coming from rate as opposed to an increase in the number of available beds.
Play 1: Sell Fall to the “Canada-First” Traveller
Examples of such travellers and the packages that can be recommended to them are:
- The Lower Mainland couple taking a trip to Vancouver Island, such as Tofino or Courtenay. These types of travellers can be offered a package that includes room only and other components that add value, such as a winery tour.
- The Albertan taking a trip to the Okanagan for wine. A package of room only with a winery tour would be recommended to such a traveller. The family taking a shoulder season trip to Whistler or Big White. This type of traveller would be recommended as a package of room only with other elements that add value to the trip, such as packages for storm watching or a spa treatment. Marketing these types of packages to areas with large concentrations of such potential customers can be effective in filling rooms in the fall.
Play 2: Win RFP Season by Selling the Trip, Not the Room
Next is business travel, which is increasing but in a much more prudent manner. As reported by the Global Business Travel Association, business travel in Canada is expected to reach $40.1 billion in 2026, increasing 4.3% above the $38.6 billion seen in 2025. Negotiated rate contracts will be based on a solid business case, and as such, hotels must be able to position the trip in terms of productivity. In order to do this, hotels must offer a number of conveniences including complimentary parking, breakfast credits, fast Wi-Fi, discounted meeting space, and digital check-ins. The negotiated rate for a number of rooms that a hotel receives in an RFP will become that hotel’s base business for the following year.
Play 3: Manage Group Blocks like a Hawk
Large associations and government groups can still fill large blocks of rooms but cannot carry the majority of the property’s forecast. Thus, managing large group holds in much the same way as one would manage to sell 15,000 rooms for a major event like FIFA becomes paramount. As the unwashed block of rooms turns into an empty floor space, quickly responding to convert the hold into sales to staycation-focused FITs and leisure travellers becomes crucial.
Play 4: Protect the Rate — It’s Doing all the Work
See above regarding rate growth, and how it is doing all of the heavy lifting in terms of growth, as occupancy is down 5.4% while ADR is up 5.4%. In terms of forecasted 2026 RevPar growth for Canada, the large growth is coming from aggressive yielders in the marketplace. Protect the rate this fall and offer value to guests in the form of an upgrade, a dining credit, late check-out, minimum stay offers on soft weekends, etc. The properties operating in very compressed markets (Victoria, downtown Vancouver, etc.) will need to yield aggressively in order to fill rooms this Fall.
Play 5: Think Hyper-Local, Measure Smarter
Canada and BC in particular are comprised of numerous sub-markets that each require a unique strategy for optimizing revenue in a corresponding hyper-localized marketing environment. As occupancy for the BC hospitality industry as a whole averages out to 70% of available rooms for the night, properties in various sub-markets around the province are experiencing vastly different levels of success during their corresponding respective shoulder seasons. The key to unlocking future revenue opportunities at any given property will come from closely monitoring and comparing length of stay, total guest spend, in addition to occupancy, allowing managers to measure up against peer group competing properties in the same given market. And importantly, every hotel’s shoulder season is different. As a result, the dates of a property’s given shoulder seasons must be monitored separately and results for those periods of the year reviewed with corresponding feedback gathered from guests that visited during given fall periods of the year and used to inform and dictate corresponding future years’ corresponding marketing initiatives.
The guaranteed business that so suddenly evaporated in March must be earned this Fall. The properties that consider September through November as prime time for sales will be richer in 2027 with a bigger base than their counterparts who consider this time as nothing more than a breather.
Questions or war stories from your own Fall Playbook? I’d love to hear them — Brent O’Connor –brent.o@telus.net